USD/CAD sitting at 1.2750 unfazed by US and Canadian data

• The Non-Farm Payroll came in below expectations at 103 vs 193K with no effect on the USD/CAD.
• The Canadian employment report was seen as “rather good”. 
• The USD/CAD is sitting at the 1.2750 support. 

The USD/CAD is trading at around 1.2770 up 0.18% as the first week of April is coming to an end. 

Earlier in the day, the worst-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll data left the Loonie unfazed. Meanwhile, the Canadian Net Change in Employment in March came in better-than-expected at 32.3K versus 20.K forecast by analysts. The Unemployment rate came in line at 5.8% matching analysts’ forecast. But the Loonie was immune to it.

“The Canadian employment report was rather good. While the overall job gains and the tilt toward full-timers are welcome developments, the weakness in private employment showing a second decline in three months could be seen as a disappointment. However, the weakness in private employment so far this year is not overly worrisome as it follows a hiring surge in the last quarter of 2017.” According to Matthieu Arseneau, analyst at the National Bank of Canada.

It is worth mentioning that the CAD is usually correlated to the price of oil. The black gold prices have been under pressure this week trading, now below $62.30. 

USD/CAD weekly chart

The USD/CAD on the weekly chart is trading below last week's low and the bears managed to keep the pair below its 50-period and 100-period simple moving average. However, the Loonie is still trading above its 200-period simple moving average which is at the 1.27 handle. The market is losing its bullish momentum from its up leg made earlier in February.  

USD/CAD daily chart

The market is currently in a bear leg since March, 19 and on Friday it found support at 1.2731 at the 50-period simple moving average. The Loonie is currently forming a wedge bull flag. Although the short-term momentum is bearish the 100-period moving average lies at the 1.27 handle, which can provide some support if reached.

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

The bears are lacking convincing momentum as the RSI and MACD suggest a pullback up which would lead the market back to the 1.2859 supply level. If this level is clearly broken, the next key resistance is seen at 1.2945 swing high. To the downside, immediate support is the 1.2750 level, followed by 1.2614 and 1.2447 swing lows.