EUR hangs in the balance - AmpGFX

The analysis team at Amplifying Global FX Capital explains that the EUR continues to hang in the balance ahead of the first round of the French election this Sunday as the EUR remains somewhat depressed by the risk of an anti-EU candidate.

Key Quotes

“Polls for the first round are close across four candidates, two pro-Euro candidates, Emmanuel Macro (En Marche!) first in the opinion polls (23.5%) and Francois Fillon (The Republicans) third in the polls (19.5%).  And two anti-EU candidates, Marine Le Pen (National Front) second in the polls (22.5%) and Jean-Luc Melenchon (Unsubmissive France) fourth in the polls (19.0%).”

“Each of the four has a chance of making it to the final head-to-head run-off election on 7 May.  The most likely outcome is Macron (pro-EU) vs Le Pen (ant-EU).  In this event, Macron would appear to be in a very good position to win the final second round vote as the moderate candidate.  The betting market still has Macron as a favourite, significantly ahead of the other candidates.”

“If Macron gets through to the final round we should start to see his probability of winning rise and the EUR strengthen.”