AUD/USD consolidating at 0.7650 in a recovery from 0.7600 despite fundamentals

AUD/USD was making a recovery overnight after yesterday's disappointments in the Chinese exports data took the Aussie to recent lows with the nonfarm payrolls data continuing to support the USD.

Nonfarm payrolls vs the bigger picture - ANZ

AUD/USD recovered to a high of 0.7672 despite the Chinese trade surplus that has widened in dollar terms to 52.3 billion. However, exports really missed and fell by 4.4% and imports edged 12.5% lower as well. Oil rallied 2% and that gave the commodity sector a lift in a better risk environment. For the day ahead, we will have China's  inflation numbers.

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Westpac offered AUD/USD 1 day-3month outlook:  "The resilient AUD flirted with the 0.7600 support level before pushing to a one-month high, and now wants to head to 0.7700 (absent a surprise from China CPI). That the AUD rallied while the US dollar index tracked sideways illustrates underlying global demand for this high-yielder.

AUD/USD 1-3 month: The RBA’s easing bias combined with the Fed’s tightening bias should push the AUD lower towards 0.74 during the months ahead, although recent BOE and BOJ easing have made the AUD even more attractive to global investment flows such that a test of 0.77 is possible first."

How volatile has AUD/USD been?

Hourly 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is currently 71 pips, and has been shrinking, while the ATR (14) is currently 11 pips. Daily 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 234 pips and expanding. The average movement for the current hour has been for 11 pips per hour, over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, 6:00-7:00 GMT represented peak for volatility, with an average movement of 20 pips over the same period.

What price levels and patterns have to be considered?

Spot is presently trading at 0.7655, and next resistance can be seen at 0.7658 (Daily Classic R1), 0.7664 (Daily High), 0.7674 (Yesterday's High), 0.7694 (Weekly Classic R1) and 0.7696 (Daily Classic R2). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.7651 (Daily Open), 0.7651 (Monthly High), 0.7651 (Weekly High), 0.7648 (Daily Low) and 0.7644 (Hourly 20 EMA).