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4 May 2016
NZD: Employment rose 2.0% yoy – Deutsche Bank
Research Team at Deutsche Bank, notes that the New Zealand released its Q1 labour market reports and the HLFS recorded a 1.2% qoq rise in household employment in Q1, around double DB and market expectations.
Key Quotes
“Employment rose 2.0% yoy. The QES employer-based survey pointed to growth in filled jobs of 1.2% qoq/2.3% yoy. Actual hours worked rose a strong 1.0% qoq and were up 2.5% yoy. In our view this raises the likelihood that the Q1 National Accounts, to be released in June, will report GDP growth at least as strong as the 0.7% qoq estimated by the RBNZ in the March MPS.
However rapid population growth and a rise in labour force participation combined to generate a 1.5% qoq increase in the labour force. As a result the unemployment rate rose 0.3pps to 5.7%. The private sector labour cost index (a unit labour cost index) rose 0.4% qoq, lifting annual growth to 1.8% yoy from 1.6% yoy previously. As far as the RBNZ is concerned we don’t think that today’s reports will have a decisive impact on the Bank’s willingness to act on its continued easing bias.”
Key Quotes
“Employment rose 2.0% yoy. The QES employer-based survey pointed to growth in filled jobs of 1.2% qoq/2.3% yoy. Actual hours worked rose a strong 1.0% qoq and were up 2.5% yoy. In our view this raises the likelihood that the Q1 National Accounts, to be released in June, will report GDP growth at least as strong as the 0.7% qoq estimated by the RBNZ in the March MPS.
However rapid population growth and a rise in labour force participation combined to generate a 1.5% qoq increase in the labour force. As a result the unemployment rate rose 0.3pps to 5.7%. The private sector labour cost index (a unit labour cost index) rose 0.4% qoq, lifting annual growth to 1.8% yoy from 1.6% yoy previously. As far as the RBNZ is concerned we don’t think that today’s reports will have a decisive impact on the Bank’s willingness to act on its continued easing bias.”