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9 Jan 2015
US NFP may show a below consensus gain at 195k in December – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Team expects today’s US payroll is show a below consensus (240k) gain of 195k in December, with the recent decline in ISM manufacturing suggesting some cooling in job growth.
Key Quotes
“The main event is the US employment report for December. We expect total payrolls to show a gain of 195,000 in December, which is below consensus expectations of 240,000.”
“The main reason for our below-consensus call is that we expect some payback from the strong November gain of 321,000. Further, the decline in the ISM manufacturing index also suggests some cooling in job growth.”
“We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.8%, as we look for a rise in the labour force to compensate for robust employment. Hourly earnings should also be monitored closely, as this is one of the key indicators for judging how much the US labour market is tightening.”
“Recently there have been signs of rising wage growth after a long period of low wage pressure, as hourly earnings increased 0.4% in November.”
Key Quotes
“The main event is the US employment report for December. We expect total payrolls to show a gain of 195,000 in December, which is below consensus expectations of 240,000.”
“The main reason for our below-consensus call is that we expect some payback from the strong November gain of 321,000. Further, the decline in the ISM manufacturing index also suggests some cooling in job growth.”
“We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.8%, as we look for a rise in the labour force to compensate for robust employment. Hourly earnings should also be monitored closely, as this is one of the key indicators for judging how much the US labour market is tightening.”
“Recently there have been signs of rising wage growth after a long period of low wage pressure, as hourly earnings increased 0.4% in November.”