EUR/USD: Strength likely to prove short-lived – MUFG

The sharp further gain for EUR/USD is on shaky ground in the view of economists at MUFG Bank.

Next six-week period is the worst of the year for EUR/USD

The Eurozone backdrop and indeed the global backdrop does not seem to us conducive to a further sustained rally in EUR/USD. 

Fundamentals as a driver over the next few weeks through the Christmas and New Year period is never reliable but if this rally is sustained over that period, we’d expect a reversal as we advance through Q1 next year – which from a seasonal perspective covers a six-week period that is the worst of the year for EUR/USD.