BoC Preview: Two scenarios and their implications for USD/CAD – TDS

Economists at TD Securities discuss the Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision and its implications for the USD/CAD pair.

Dovish (40%)

Rates unchanged. Bank holds overnight rate at 4.50% as it seeks more evidence that outlook has shifted materially. Statement acknowledges Q1 GDP and labour market strength but also points to weaker survey data, still-anchored inflation expectations, and states that growth is expected to slow to justify pause. Bank maintains forward guidance, leaving hikes on the table if outlook continues to strengthen. USD/CAD +0.40%.

Base-Case (60%)

25 bps hike. Bank steps off the sidelines with hike to 4.75% after accumulation of upside data surprises. Statement has a hawkish tone, cites resilient economic conditions, sticky core inflation pressures, and subsiding US banking risks. Economy remains in excess demand and further tightening still on the table if required. USD/CAD -0.60%.